
Fifty six days to Kogi governorship election scheduled to hold on November 11, 2023, frantic political activities in the state has heightened tension.
According to keen observers the governorship contest may shake the 32 year old state to its foundation due to some factors that has become a recurring decimal in Kogi.
All eighteen political parties and their candidates are participating in the race to succeed Governor Yahaya Bello in Lugard House. They are Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Muritala Ajaka of Social Democratic Party (SDP); Leke Abejide of African Democratic Congress (ADC); Olayinka Braimoh of Action Alliance (AA); Kingsley Idoko Ilonah of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Dr. Samson Agada Omale of Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Admiral Usman Jibrin of Accord (A) party amongst others.
At the moment, pundits believe none of the 18 governorship candidates can honestly boast of winning the poll.
Five key issues will likely shape the contest.
Ethnic Rivalry
The 2023 governorship elections in Kogi state promises to be direct confrontation between the three major ethnic nationalities in the state. This is novel, though not total new to Kogi politics. Since the creation of the state in 1991, there has always been ethnic contests between two major tribes while the third tribe and minorities become beautiful brides.
In 1999, Kogi governorship contest was a royal rumble between PDP’s Steven Olorunfemi from Okun and ANPP’s Abubakar Audu from Igala. Ebiras were the beautiful brides. In 2007, it was a face-off between ACN’s Mohammed Salami Ohiare of Ebira and PDP’s Ibrahim Idris of Igala land. Okuns were the beautiful brides. 2019 governorship contest was between APC’s Yahaya Bello, an Ebira and PDP’s Musa Wada. The election results always showed ethnic inclinations. In 2019, Musa Wada won overall votes from Igala land while Yahaya Bello cleaned up Ebira votes in unimagineable landslide.
Primaries held this year as successfully altered the usual pattern of two major tribes facing each other and using the third tribe as bargaining chip. PDP produced Dino Melaye from Okun tribe, APC produced Usman Ododo from Ebira tribe while the SDP propped up Murtala Ajaka, an Igala, as its candidate.
This is the first time since the state creation that the three major tribes will engage in battle for supremacy.
In the highly divisive governorship contest, the biggest issues dominating the campaigns loudly and in whispers are not merit, capacity, or track record of a candidate, but ethnic inclination. The campaign colouration is fast shaping up into a tribal contest, a triangular dogfight among the Ebira, Okun, and Igala ethnic nationalities.
Based on voting strengths, none of these three tribes can single handedly make one of their own governor, so, the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may likely decide who wins November 2023 governorship election.
Political Violence
Kogi’s growing notoriety for political violence is another key issue that may shape the November 11 election.
Since 2003, incidences of violence has become one of the characteristics of elections in the state. In 2019, the entire nation learnt a new slogan for political violence, ‘tatatata’. The barbaric killing of a woman, Salome Abuh, who was burnt alive in her house shortly after the announcement of the results of the governorship election on November 18, 2019 saw Kogi’s rating in political absurdities rise.
Recent developments shows 2023 may not be different from previous election years. On June 3 this year, there was a clash of convoys between Murtala Ajaka and Governor Yahaya Bello. Speaking of the convoy attack, Governor Bello said: “Let it be the first and last time an antelope will cross the lion’s way. Next time, there will be no warning”. Not long after that, suspected political thugs invaded and vandalized the SDP campaign office in Lokoja, the state capital. After accusations and counter-claims, the hoodlums returned to same campaign office and set it ablaze. There has been reports of attack on APC secretariat in Igalamela-Odolu local government.
The signs are ominous and if allowed to fester, it will surely affect the election with the possibility of low turnout of voters.
Anti-Party Activities
In the February 2023 general elections, ADC claimed two House of Representatives seats in Kogi state. The duo reaped from overt and covert anti-party activities in their respective constituencies.
Fallout from party primary elections led many aggrieved politicians to support different candidates and similar scenario is playing out after the governorship primaries in some of the parties.
After Dino emerged candidate of PDP at the primaries, a horde of politicians have left the party in anger. APC primary election is still being challenged in the courts. The primary election of NNPP has been upturned and Musa Mabarak has been replaced with Hassan Abdullahi. The fallout from these contentious primaries may force aggrieved politicians to engage in anti-party activities ahead of the governorship election.
Power of Incumbency
Kogi has witnessed the much touted ‘power of incumbency’ severally at the polls.
The APC controls federal and state powers as well as its enormous coercive apparatus. With federal and state might behind the APC candidate, observers opines that the oppositions face an herculean task in their bid to win the election.
While the battle for ethnic supremacy rages on, appointees of current government from the three main ethnic zones are gearing up to garner winning votes for their party candidate.
Controversial Endorsement and Defections
There has been news of endorsements across political parties. The last few weeks has also seen an unprecedented rate of defections from one party to another. However, many of these activities has been controversial.
The governorship candidate of ADP, Barr. Julius Elukpo, openly endorsed Murtala Ajaka of SDP. However, a week later, the state chairman of ADP announced that the party had collapsed its structures for APC’s Usman Ododo. Both have been hitting each other since then.
Also, the Idah chapter of ADC visited Dino Melaye and ‘collapsed’ its structures for the PDP candidate. However, the state chairman came out and distanced the party from the endorsement, adding that the officials who visited Dino were impostors.
The ruling party is not left out of the defection controversies. It announced the defection of all 21 LGA chairmen of SDP to APC, listing their names and position the less However, in a swift reaction, the ADC claimed none of their executive members defected to APC. SDP listed the names of authentic executive members to prove that APC might have been scammed.
By and large, the security agencies have a huge role to play in ensuring the election is peaceful. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) must step up its game and ensure the processes are free, fair and credible. Anything short of that, the November 2023 election will go the way of previous polls.
